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Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Sunderland round off their Premier League campaign with a glamour home fixture against Chelsea at the Stadium of Light on 24 May 2026. With C. Kavanagh appointed as referee and a full house expected on Wearside, this is a high‑stakes finale for both sides.

In the table, Sunderland sit 10th with 51 points from 37 matches, while Chelsea are 8th on 52 points. The visitors currently occupy a “Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)” spot, so European football is on the line, whereas Sunderland are pushing to secure a top‑half finish and potentially leapfrog Chelsea with a final‑day win. That context makes this Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction especially intriguing for bettors and neutrals alike.

Recent head‑to‑head history, Chelsea’s attacking numbers and Sunderland’s solid home record all feed into the key angles for Sunderland vs Chelsea betting tips, with both sides showing vulnerabilities at the back but plenty of threat going forward.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Stats

  • Sunderland are 10th with 51 points, scoring 40 and conceding 47 across 37 league games.
  • Sunderland beat Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League on 25 October 2025.
  • Sunderland average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while Chelsea average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Sunderland vs Chelsea — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 10 vs 8
  • Points: 51 vs 52
  • Goals For: 40 vs 57
  • Goals Against: 47 vs 50
  • Clean Sheets: Sunderland 11 vs Chelsea 9

With one match remaining, just a single point separates these sides. Sunderland’s record of 13 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats underlines how competitive they have been, especially at home where they have 8 wins, 6 draws and only 4 losses with 23 goals scored and 19 conceded. Chelsea’s 14 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats show a higher ceiling in attack, with 57 goals overall and an impressive 31 scored in 18 away games.

Defensively, Sunderland are marginally tighter, conceding 47 to Chelsea’s 50, and they also edge the clean‑sheet count 11 to 9. However, Chelsea’s superior goal difference (+7 versus Sunderland’s -7) reflects a more potent attacking unit. The stakes are clear: a Sunderland win would likely flip the standings and could deny Chelsea a route into European competition, while any result of draw or better should be enough for Chelsea to defend their current continental berth.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Matchups

E. Le Fée vs Joã​o Pedro

Enzo Jérémy Le Fée has been a creative heartbeat for Sunderland. In 35 Premier League appearances (32 starts, 2855 minutes), he has contributed 5 goals and 6 assists, backed by 1073 passes at 81% accuracy and 49 key passes. His work out of possession is equally important: 85 tackles, 11 blocks and 27 interceptions underline his all‑round midfield influence.

For Chelsea, Joã​o Pedro is the headline attacking threat. In 34 appearances (30 starts, 2584 minutes), he has scored 15 goals and supplied 5 assists, taking 50 shots with 28 on target. He also adds 29 key passes and has drawn 54 fouls, underlining how difficult he is to handle between the lines. Sunderland’s ability to limit service into Joã​o Pedro, and Le Fée’s capacity to dictate tempo and progress the ball, could go a long way to deciding the balance of chances.

G. Xhaka vs E. Fernández

Granit Xhaka offers Sunderland control and bite in midfield. Over 33 appearances (31 starts, 2813 minutes), he has 1 goal and 6 assists, with 1755 passes at 83% accuracy and 34 key passes. Defensively, he has 50 tackles, 20 blocks and 29 interceptions, plus 7 yellow cards, showing his willingness to engage in duels.

Enzo Jeremías Fernández is Chelsea’s midfield engine. In 35 appearances (34 starts, 3031 minutes), he has produced 10 goals and 4 assists, firing 52 shots (31 on target) and completing 1983 passes at 86% accuracy with 67 key passes. His 52 tackles and 21 interceptions show he contributes on both sides of the ball, while 9 yellow cards highlight his combative nature. The Xhaka–Fernández battle will shape territory and possession; if Fernández finds space to dictate, Chelsea’s superior attacking numbers could tilt the contest.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two have a rich recent history, with Sunderland more competitive than reputations might suggest. Across the last 10 meetings listed below, both sides have enjoyed big wins and narrow defeats, with several high‑scoring encounters.

  • 25 October 2025: Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland (Premier League)
  • 21 May 2017: Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
  • 14 December 2016: Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 7 May 2016: Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 19 December 2015: Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland (Premier League)

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced contest. Sunderland’s league form string of WDDLL hints at recent inconsistency, with just one win in their last five. Chelsea’s sequence of WDLLL is even more alarming, with three straight defeats following a win and a draw. Over the last five matches in the prediction data, Sunderland have averaged 1.4 goals for and 2.2 against, while Chelsea have averaged 0.8 for and 1.8 against, so neither defence is watertight.

However, the prediction metrics still shade things towards Chelsea, with a 45% implied chance of an away win, 45% for the draw and only 10% for a Sunderland victory, and the advice leaning to “double chance: draw or Chelsea”. Sunderland’s home resilience and better recent attacking output suggest they can score, but Chelsea’s superior season‑long attack and European motivation give them a slight edge. With both teams’ xG‑style averages pointing under 2.5 goals per side, this may be a tight, tactical affair rather than a shoot‑out.

Predicted Score: Sunderland 1-1 Chelsea

Sunderland League Form

WDDLL

Chelsea League Form

WDLLL

Sunderland Possible Starting Lineup

M. Ellborg; O. Alderete, D. Ballard, Reinildo, L. Geertruida; G. Xhaka, T. Hume, E. Le Fée, C. Rigg; B. Brobbey, W. Isidor.

Sunderland have used a 4-2-3-1 more than any other shape this season, and the personnel above fit that template: a solid back four built around D. Ballard and Reinildo, with G. Xhaka and T. Hume offering protection and progression in midfield. E. Le Fée and C. Rigg provide creativity between the lines, while B. Brobbey and W. Isidor offer pace and physicality in attack. With 11 clean sheets across the campaign and a home record of 23 goals scored and 19 conceded, this structure has generally given Sunderland a good balance at the Stadium of Light.

Chelsea Possible Starting Lineup

Robert Sánchez; T. Chalobah, B. Badiashile, Marc Cucurella, R. James; M. Caicedo, E. Fernández; C. Palmer, Pedro Neto, A. Garnacho; Joã​o Pedro.

Chelsea have leaned heavily on a 4-2-3-1, and this selection reflects that preference. Robert Sánchez anchors the side in goal, with ball‑playing defenders like T. Chalobah and Marc Cucurella comfortable in possession. M. Caicedo and E. Fernández form a high‑quality double pivot, combining 3 goals and 1 assist for Caicedo with 10 goals and 4 assists for Fernández. Ahead of them, Joã​o Pedro leads the line after a 15‑goal league campaign, supported by creative wide options such as C. Palmer, Pedro Neto and A. Garnacho. With 57 goals scored and only 7 league games in which they failed to score, this setup maximises Chelsea’s attacking depth.

Sunderland Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chelsea Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Sunderland:

  • None reported.

Chelsea:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Sunderland vs Chelsea

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Chelsea in the double chance market (draw or away win). Prediction data gives Sunderland only 10% chance of victory, with draw and Chelsea each at 45%, and the advice explicitly favouring “double chance: draw or Chelsea”. With most bookmakers pricing Chelsea as favourites around 1.95–2.05 for the straight win (e.g. 2.00 at Bet365, 2.01 at Pinnacle, 2.05 at 1xBet), taking the safer double‑chance angle looks a solid play.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Sunderland average 1.1 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, Chelsea 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded. The prediction line for both sides is under 2.5 goals, and several recent H2H meetings (1-0 in December 2016, 2-1 in October 2025) have been relatively tight. While the odds line for under goals is not listed, the general goals profile supports a cautious goals position rather than expecting a high‑scoring shoot‑out.
  • Value Tip: Joã​o Pedro to score anytime. With 15 goals and 5 assists in 34 appearances, plus 50 shots and 28 on target, Joã​o Pedro is Chelsea’s primary goal threat and central to their attack. Sunderland concede 1.3 goals per game and have allowed 47 across the season, so backing Chelsea’s leading scorer to find the net offers an appealing value angle. Given away‑win odds around 2.00 at Bet365 and 2.01–2.05 at Pinnacle and 1xBet, any player‑goal markets that price Joã​o Pedro generously relative to those match odds should be closely considered.

How to Watch Sunderland vs Chelsea

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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