Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Selhurst Park hosts a compelling final-day Premier League clash as Crystal Palace welcome title-chasing Arsenal to London. With the visitors sitting top of the table and the hosts in the lower half, this fixture blends survival of pride for Palace with potential glory for Arsenal. The match will be overseen by referee F. Hallam.

Crystal Palace arrive in 15th place on 45 points from 37 games, safely clear of danger but looking to halt a worrying slide in form. Arsenal, by contrast, sit 1st with 82 points from their 37 fixtures, boasting one of the league’s best attacks and defences and already assured of a Champions League league-phase berth. Stats suggest a clear gap in quality, but final-day Premier League drama often ignores the script.

From a betting and prediction perspective, this Crystal Palace vs Arsenal match brings together a home side averaging just 1.1 goals per game against an away team scoring 1.9 and conceding only 0.7. With Arsenal heavily favoured in most markets and dominating recent head-to-head meetings, punters will be weighing up whether Palace can spring an upset or if this becomes another efficient away performance from the league leaders.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Key Stats

• Crystal Palace sit 15th with 45 points and a -9 goal difference (40 scored, 49 conceded) from 37 matches, while Arsenal are 1st with 82 points and a +43 goal difference (69 scored, 26 conceded).
• In their latest Premier League meeting on 26 October 2025, Arsenal beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at the Emirates Stadium.
• Arsenal average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per league game this season, compared to Palace’s 1.1 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 15 vs 1
• Points: 45 vs 82
• Goals For: 40 vs 69
• Goals Against: 49 vs 26
• Clean Sheets: Crystal Palace 12, Arsenal 19

The season record shows a clear divide between these sides. Palace have battled their way to 11 wins, 12 draws and 14 defeats, scoring 40 and conceding 49. Their negative goal difference and modest tally of four home wins from 18 underline a team that has struggled to control games at Selhurst Park, despite drawing more than half of their home fixtures.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have produced title-winning numbers: 25 victories, 7 draws and just 5 defeats from 37 matches, with 69 goals scored and only 26 conceded. Their away record is particularly strong — 10 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 28 goals scored and 15 conceded — and their 19 clean sheets across the campaign highlight a defensive structure that has been as impressive as their attack.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Key Matchups

J. Mateta vs V. Gyökeres

Jean-Philippe Mateta has been Crystal Palace’s primary goal threat, scoring 11 league goals in 31 appearances. He has started 25 of those games and logged 2209 minutes, with 55 shots and 31 on target, showing he is central to Palace’s attacking output. His physical presence is backed by 289 duels contested and 110 won, plus four successful penalties from four attempts, underlining his reliability from the spot.

Viktor Gyökeres leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 14 goals in 35 appearances. Despite starting only 26 times and playing 2238 minutes, he has been highly efficient in front of goal, with 40 shots and 22 on target. He also contributes one assist and has converted three penalties from three. This matchup pits Mateta’s volume and aerial presence against Gyökeres’ clinical finishing in a game where both may only need one clear chance to swing the result.

L. Trossard vs M. Lacroix

Leandro Trossard has been one of Arsenal’s most creative forces, with 6 goals and 6 assists in 31 league appearances. He has started 21 times and played 2006 minutes, registering 35 shots (15 on target) and an impressive 36 key passes from 757 total passes at 77% accuracy. His 25 successful dribbles from 56 attempts and 39 fouls drawn show how often he destabilises defensive structures in the final third.

For Palace, Maxence Lacroix anchors the back line and features among the league’s most prominent red-card recipients this season. He has played 35 matches (all starts) and 3087 minutes, scoring once and providing 2 assists from defence. His 1656 passes at 88% accuracy, 60 tackles, 18 blocks and 45 interceptions underline his importance in disrupting opposition attacks. However, 34 fouls committed and 1 red card hint at a defender who can be drawn into risky challenges — something Trossard’s movement and dribbling are well placed to exploit.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent history strongly favours Arsenal, who have dominated this fixture across league and cup. The last five meetings show Arsenal consistently finding a way to win, whether at home or at Selhurst Park.

• 23 December 2025: Arsenal 1-1 Crystal Palace (League Cup, Arsenal won on penalties 8-7)
• 26 October 2025: Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
• 23 April 2025: Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
• 21 December 2024: Crystal Palace 1-5 Arsenal (Premier League)
• 18 December 2024: Arsenal 3-2 Crystal Palace (League Cup)

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction

Analysis points to a game where Arsenal control territory and possession, while Palace look to stay compact and strike through Mateta and set pieces. Palace’s league form string of DLDLL and a last-five defensive record of 13 goals conceded (2.6 per game) highlight their vulnerability at the back. Arsenal’s league form of WWWWL and last-five defensive average of 0.4 goals conceded underline their solidity.

The prediction metrics give Arsenal a 45% chance of victory and a 45% chance of a draw, with only 10% allocated to a Palace win, and the advice leans towards “double chance: draw or Arsenal.” While the goals fields are not directly usable as a scoreline, the combination of Arsenal’s strong away record, Palace’s struggles at home and the head-to-head dominance suggests a controlled away win with limited scoring for the hosts.

Predicted Score: Crystal Palace 0-2 Arsenal

Crystal Palace League Form

DLDLL

Arsenal League Form

WWWWL

Crystal Palace Possible Starting Lineup

W. Benítez; N. Clyne, M. Lacroix, C. Richards, B. Sosa; W. Hughes, J. Lerma, D. Kamada, A. Wharton; J. Mateta, I. Sarr.

Palace have typically favoured a back three or flexible defensive setup this season, with lineups most often in a 3-4-2-1 and occasionally 3-4-3 or 5-4-1. Lacroix is the defensive lynchpin, supported by experienced full-backs such as Clyne and Sosa. In midfield, work-rate and ball-winning from Lerma and Hughes or Kamada are crucial to screening a defence that concedes 1.3 goals per game. Up front, Mateta is the focal point, likely supported by pace and direct running from wide forwards like I. Sarr, aiming to exploit transitions against Arsenal’s high line.

Arsenal Possible Starting Lineup

David Raya; B. White, W. Saliba, R. Calafiori, P. Hincapié; D. Rice, Mikel Merino, M. Ødegaard; B. Saka, V. Gyökeres, L. Trossard.

Arsenal have alternated between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, with those two shapes accounting for all their league lineups. Saliba marshals a back four that has allowed just 26 goals in 37 matches, supported by ball-playing defenders such as Calafiori or Hincapié. In midfield, Rice and Merino offer control and physicality, freeing Ødegaard to create between the lines. The front three of Saka, Gyökeres and Trossard combines pace, dribbling and finishing, reflected in Arsenal’s 69 goals and 1.9 goals-per-game average.

Crystal Palace Team News

No significant absences reported.

Arsenal Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Crystal Palace:

• None reported.

Arsenal:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Arsenal to win. With Arsenal given a combined 90% chance to avoid defeat (45% away win, 45% draw) and Palace only 10% to win, alongside Arsenal’s vastly superior form and goal difference, the away victory is the logical play. Among the available prices, Bet365 offer around 1.80 on the away win, while Unibet go as low as 1.71 and 1xBet as high as 1.86.
• Goals Tip: Back under 3.5 goals. Palace average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Arsenal concede only 0.7 per game. Despite some high-scoring head-to-heads, Palace’s limited attacking output against a strong defence suggests a controlled Arsenal win rather than a shootout. Look for a goals market line with odds in the region of the match-winner prices (for example, around 1.75–1.90 depending on bookmaker and exact line), using firms such as Betfair (1.75 on the away win) as a guide to general market levels.
• Value Tip: Back V. Gyökeres to score anytime. He has 14 goals in 35 appearances, including three penalties, and leads the line for the league’s top attack. Against a Palace defence that concedes 1.3 goals per game and has shown disciplinary issues through players like M. Lacroix (one red card, 34 fouls committed), Gyökeres is well placed to find the net. Expect anytime scorer odds to be longer than the match odds but still relatively short given his status; use the away win prices from Pinnacle (1.82) or William Hill (1.83) as a benchmark for how strongly the market rates Arsenal’s attacking chances.

How to Watch Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.