Burnley vs Wolves Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a final-day Premier League clash that decides who finishes bottom of the table. Both sides are already consigned to relegation to the Championship, but with only two points separating 19th-placed Burnley and 20th-placed Wolves, there is still pride, prize money, and a psychological edge at stake before they reset in the second tier.

The match at Turf Moor comes after deeply disappointing campaigns for both clubs. Burnley sit 19th with 21 points from 37 games, having won just four league matches and carrying a goal difference of -37. Wolves are even worse off in 20th, with 19 points, only three wins and a -41 goal difference. For those looking for a Burnley vs Wolves prediction, the numbers point to a tight, low-quality but fiercely contested encounter between two of the league’s weakest attacks.

From a Premier League betting perspective, this fixture is intriguing because the markets are finely balanced and the underlying stats suggest neither side deserves clear favouritism. Burnley’s home advantage at Turf Moor is offset by Wolves’ marginally stronger defensive metrics and the visitors’ edge in the prediction models, which lean towards a draw or an away result rather than a home win.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Stats

• Burnley have taken 21 points from 37 league matches (4 wins, 9 draws, 24 defeats) with 37 goals scored and 74 conceded.
• Across their last five competitive meetings listed, Burnley and Wolves have produced one win each and three draws in the Premier League and cups, including a 3-2 away win for Burnley at Molineux on 26 October 2025.
• Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per league game this season, while Wolves average 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Burnley vs Wolves — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 19 vs 20
• Points: 21 vs 19
• Goals For: 37 vs 26
• Goals Against: 74 vs 67
• Clean Sheets: Burnley 4 vs Wolves 4

The season record shows two of the division’s poorest performers going head-to-head. Burnley have been marginally more productive in attack, scoring 37 times compared to Wolves’ 26, but they have also been far more porous at the back, conceding 74 goals to Wolves’ 67. Both sides are firmly in the relegation zone and already marked for “Relegation - Championship”, underlining how far short they have fallen.

Burnley’s tally of 21 points from 37 games leaves them two clear of Wolves, meaning a draw would be enough to avoid finishing bottom. Wolves, with 19 points and no away wins all season in the league, must win at Turf Moor to climb off 20th. However, their away record of 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 defeats, with just 7 goals scored on the road, highlights why the visitors have struggled so badly despite conceding slightly fewer than Burnley overall.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Matchups

Z. Flemming vs André

Zian Flemming has been Burnley’s standout attacking threat in a bleak campaign. The attacker has scored 10 league goals in 28 appearances, with 20 shots on target from 37 attempts, and has converted both of his penalties. His 10 goals represent more than a quarter of Burnley’s total of 37, underlining his importance in any Burnley vs Wolves prediction that leans towards a home result.

For Wolves, André has been a key midfield presence, particularly in build-up and ball retention. Across 34 appearances and 2676 minutes, he has completed 1285 passes with an impressive 91% accuracy and produced 18 key passes. Defensively, he has made 78 tackles and 29 interceptions, while committing 45 fouls and drawing 42, picking up 12 yellow cards. His ability to disrupt Flemming’s influence between the lines and control midfield tempo will be central to Wolves’ hopes of getting a result.

J. Laurent vs João Gomes

Joshua Laurent offers Burnley bite and physicality in midfield. In 33 appearances he has scored once, taken 10 shots (4 on target), and completed 642 passes at 78% accuracy, with 12 key passes. Defensively he has contributed 48 tackles and 27 interceptions, but his aggressive style has also led to 31 fouls committed and 7 yellow cards plus 1 red card. His discipline and positioning will be crucial in preventing Wolves from dominating the middle third.

João Gomes has been one of Wolves’ most industrious performers. In 35 appearances and 2843 minutes, he has scored once and provided 1 assist, with 13 shots (7 on target). He has completed 1453 passes at 85% accuracy and made 16 key passes. Out of possession he has been prolific: 108 tackles, 36 interceptions and 449 duels contested, winning 227, though he has also committed 69 fouls and received 10 yellow cards. The Laurent vs João Gomes battle promises to be intense and could dictate which side gains territorial control.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head history between Burnley and Wolves has been relatively balanced, with both sides enjoying spells of dominance and several tight encounters in the Premier League and cups.

• 26 October 2025: Wolves 2-3 Burnley (Premier League)
• 28 August 2024: Wolves 2-0 Burnley (League Cup)
• 2 April 2024: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
• 5 December 2023: Wolves 1-0 Burnley (Premier League)
• 9 July 2022: Wolves 3-0 Burnley (Friendlies Clubs)

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction

Analysis points to a tight, low-scoring contest between two sides short on confidence and cutting edge. Burnley’s league form line of “LDLLL” and Wolves’ “DLDLL” underline how rarely either has tasted victory in recent weeks. Burnley have the slightly stronger attack and home advantage at Turf Moor, but Wolves are marginally better defensively and the predictive metrics give them a 45% chance of avoiding defeat (draw or away win), compared to only 10% for a Burnley victory.

With both teams averaging fewer than one goal scored per game and conceding close to two, a cautious, nervy encounter feels likely. The advice leans towards “Double chance: draw or Wolves”, suggesting the visitors are more likely to emerge with something, even if their dreadful away record tempers confidence. Given the guidance that goals expectations are below typical thresholds for both sides, a stalemate or narrow away success looks the most plausible outcome.

Predicted Score: Burnley 0-1 Wolves

Burnley League Form

LDLLL

Wolves League Form

DLDLL

Burnley Possible Starting Lineup

M. Dúbravka; K. Walker, M. Estève, A. Tuanzebe, Lucas Pires; J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino, J. Laurent; Z. Flemming, J. Bruun Larsen, L. Foster.

Burnley have rotated through several systems this season, most frequently using a 4-2-3-1 but also switching to back threes and fives. A back four anchored by K. Walker’s experience on the flank and J. Ward-Prowse’s set-piece delivery in midfield gives them structure, while Z. Flemming is the focal point of their attacking play. With four clean sheets all season and 74 goals conceded, the emphasis will be on compactness and supplying Flemming and the central striker with limited but high-quality chances.

Wolves Possible Starting Lineup

José Sá; Toti Gomes, Y. Mosquera, L. Krejčí; Pedro Lima, André, João Gomes, Hugo Bueno; Rodrigo Gomes; Hwang Hee-Chan, A. Armstrong.

Wolves have favoured three-at-the-back systems such as 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2, and a similar shape is likely at Turf Moor. Y. Mosquera’s defensive presence, combined with André and João Gomes in central midfield, gives them a solid spine. Out wide, players like Pedro Lima and Hugo Bueno can provide width, while Hwang Hee-Chan and A. Armstrong offer movement ahead of the ball. Despite only four clean sheets and 26 goals scored, this structure aims to keep the game tight and exploit Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities on transitions.

Burnley Team News

No significant absences reported.

Wolves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Burnley:

• None reported.

Wolves:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Burnley vs Wolves

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Double chance: Draw or Wolves. The prediction model gives Wolves and the draw a combined 90% probability (45% each) versus just 10% for a Burnley win, and the advice explicitly backs “Double chance: draw or Wolves”. With the match-winner market tightly priced around 2.49 for Burnley and 2.79 for Wolves at Pinnacle, leaning towards the away side not losing offers a safer angle.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Burnley average 1.0 goals for and 2.0 against, while Wolves average 0.7 for and 1.8 against, and both sides have very low “over” counts at higher goal thresholds. Recent head-to-head clashes have often been tight, including 1-1 at Turf Moor on 2 April 2024 and 1-0 at Molineux on 5 December 2023, supporting a low-scoring outlook. Use the main goals line from your preferred bookmaker alongside the match-winner odds (for context, Bet365 prices the home win at 2.50, draw at 3.40, away at 2.75).
• Value Tip: Wolves to avoid defeat (Draw or Away) at plus-money away prices. Wolves’ defensive record (67 conceded) is slightly better than Burnley’s (74 conceded), and their key midfielders André and João Gomes provide strong ball-winning and control metrics. With several firms offering Wolves as underdogs — for example 2.80 away at Marathonbet and 2.84 at 1xBet in the match-winner market — backing the visitors on the double-chance line or with draw-no-bet could present value relative to their 45% away win probability.

How to Watch Burnley vs Wolves

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.