Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Parma bring down the curtain on their Serie A campaign at Stadio Ennio Tardini with a tricky assignment against Sassuolo on 24 May 2026. The hosts have already ensured safety but sit in the lower half of the table, while the visitors arrive in mid-table with the chance to cement a top-half finish. With both sides separated by just seven points, this has all the ingredients of a tight, competitive finale.

Parma come into the final round in 13th place on 42 points after 37 matches, with a negative goal difference that underlines their struggles in both boxes. Sassuolo, 11th with 49 points, have been more productive going forward but equally leaky at the back, making this clash particularly interesting for those looking at Parma vs Sassuolo prediction angles and goal-based betting markets.

Recent meetings between these clubs have often been close, and with neither side under relegation pressure, attention turns to pride, final positioning, and individual milestones. Bettors searching for Parma vs Sassuolo betting tips will find a compelling blend of contrasting styles: Parma’s low-scoring, attritional approach against a Sassuolo side that typically plays with more attacking intent but leaves space in behind.

Parma vs Sassuolo Key Stats

• Parma are 13th with 42 points from 37 games, scoring 27 and conceding 46 in Serie A.
• The most recent league meeting on 3 January 2026 in Serie A ended Sassuolo 1-1 Parma at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
• Parma average 0.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per league game, while Sassuolo average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Parma vs Sassuolo — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 13 vs 11
• Points: 42 vs 49
• Goals For: 27 vs 46
• Goals Against: 46 vs 49
• Clean Sheets: Parma 12; Sassuolo 8

The season record shows Parma have been among the lowest scorers in the division, with just 27 goals in 37 matches. Their -19 goal difference reflects a side that has often been on the back foot, especially at home where they have won 4 of 18 games and scored only 15 times. Their league form string of LLLWW underlines a late uptick but also a campaign marked by inconsistency.

Sassuolo, by contrast, have found the net 46 times, nearly double Parma’s tally, but their defensive numbers are only marginally better, conceding 49. With 14 wins and 16 defeats, they have been one of Serie A’s streakier teams. Their away record (5 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, 21 goals for, 23 against) suggests they are capable of taking the initiative on the road, but also vulnerable to lapses, which keeps this encounter finely balanced.

Parma vs Sassuolo Key Matchups

Mateo Pellegrino vs Andrea Pinamonti

Parma’s main attacking reference this season has been Mateo Pellegrino. The 24-year-old attacker has 8 goals and 1 assist from 36 appearances, starting 33 times and logging 2,901 minutes. He has taken 50 shots with 21 on target, and his 20 key passes highlight his importance as both finisher and creator. His physical presence is backed by 525 duels contested and 224 won, while he has drawn 67 fouls, showing how often he occupies and troubles opposing defences.

For Sassuolo, Andrea Pinamonti leads the scoring charts with 9 goals and 3 assists in 35 appearances (31 starts, 2,493 minutes). He has fired 57 shots with 30 on target and contributed 17 key passes, underlining a well-rounded centre-forward profile. Pinamonti’s 250 duels and 97 wins, plus 31 fouls drawn, show he can occupy Parma’s back line physically and technically. This head-to-head between the two leading scorers could go a long way to deciding the result.

Armand Laurienté vs Mariano Troilo

On Sassuolo’s left flank, Armand Laurienté has been one of Serie A’s standout creators. In 37 appearances (32 starts, 2,548 minutes), he has produced 7 goals and 9 assists. With 52 shots (26 on target), 787 total passes and a superb 54 key passes at 84% accuracy, Laurienté is the main conduit for Sassuolo’s attacking play. His 79 dribble attempts with 29 successes and 47 fouls drawn underline his threat in one‑v‑one situations.

Trying to contain that influence will be Parma defender Mariano Troilo, who has been a defensive pillar. In 20 appearances (17 starts, 1,546 minutes), Troilo has contributed 1 goal and strong defensive metrics: 25 tackles, 18 blocks and 16 interceptions, plus 85 duels won from 146. However, his disciplinary record is a concern, with 7 yellow cards, 1 yellow-red and 1 straight red. Up against Laurienté’s dribbling and movement, Troilo’s aggression will need to be carefully managed to avoid costly cards.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo has been competitive in recent years, with both sides enjoying spells of dominance. Across the last five meetings listed below, Sassuolo have two wins, Parma have one, and there have been two draws.

• 3 January 2026: Sassuolo 1-1 Parma (Serie A)
• 2 August 2023: Parma 1-0 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
• 1 August 2021: Parma 0-3 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
• 16 May 2021: Parma 1-3 Sassuolo (Serie A)
• 17 January 2021: Sassuolo 1-1 Parma (Serie A)

Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction

Analysis points to a finely poised contest. Parma’s league form of LLLWW suggests they have recently rediscovered some resilience, but their season-long scoring average of 0.7 goals per game remains a major concern. Sassuolo’s attack, powered by Laurienté, Pinamonti and Domenico Berardi, averages 1.2 goals per match and has been more consistent, even if their defence concedes at a similar rate to Parma’s.

The predictive metrics lean towards Sassuolo avoiding defeat, with a 45% probability assigned to both an away win and a draw, and only 10% to a Parma victory. Comparison data also favours Sassuolo in attack (64% vs 36%) and overall (60% vs 40%). However, given Parma’s improved recent results and the draw in January’s league meeting, a share of the points looks highly plausible. Expect Sassuolo to have more of the ball and chances, but Parma’s defensive structure and set-piece threat can keep them in it.

Predicted Score: Parma 1-1 Sassuolo

Parma League Form

LLLWW

Sassuolo League Form

LLWDW

Parma Possible Starting Lineup

G. Astaldi; A. N'Diaye, M. Troilo, L. Valenti, E. Valeri; Adrián Bernabé, N. Estévez, O. Sørensen; Gabriel Strefezza, P. Almqvist, Mateo Pellegrino.

Stats suggest Parma are most comfortable in a back three or back four, with 3-5-2 their most used shape but also frequent use of 4-3-3. A defensive core built around M. Troilo and L. Valenti, with E. Valeri offering width, would provide solidity in front of the goalkeepers’ pool that includes G. Astaldi and E. Corvi. In midfield, Adrián Bernabé and N. Estévez can supply progression and control, while O. Sørensen offers energy. In attack, Gabriel Strefezza and P. Almqvist can support Pellegrino, whose 8 league goals and aerial presence make him the focal point. Expect Parma to prioritise compactness, looking to exploit transitions and set pieces.

Sassuolo Possible Starting Lineup

A. Murić; Fali Candé, S. Walukiewicz, J. Idzes, J. Doig; N. Matić, K. Thorstvedt; A. Laurienté, C. Volpato, D. Berardi; A. Pinamonti.

Sassuolo have overwhelmingly favoured a 4-3-3 this season, using it in 35 league games, and that structure should remain. N. Matić anchors midfield, bringing control and distribution backed by 1,699 passes at 86% accuracy, while K. Thorstvedt contributes both defensive work and end product with 4 goals and 4 assists. In the front line, Laurienté’s 7 goals and 9 assists, Berardi’s 8 goals and 4 assists, and Pinamonti’s 9 goals give Sassuolo a potent attacking trio. Full-backs like J. Doig and Fali Candé can push high, making Sassuolo dangerous in wide areas but also leaving space for Parma counters.

Parma Team News

No significant absences reported.

Sassuolo Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Parma:

• None reported.

Sassuolo:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Parma vs Sassuolo

[Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:]

• Result Tip: Double chance: Draw or Sassuolo. The prediction metrics give Sassuolo a 45% chance to win and 45% for the draw, versus just 10% for a Parma victory, and Sassuolo’s superior attacking numbers back them to avoid defeat. Pinnacle offer around 2.69 on the away win, while several bookmakers price Parma and Sassuolo similarly (e.g. 10Bet at 2.62 home and 2.62 away), underlining the value in siding with the visitors on the safer double‑chance angle.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Parma’s matches have been extremely low-scoring, with only 27 goals for and 46 against across 37 games, and their xG-style averages of 0.7 scored and 1.2 conceded suggest tight affairs. Sassuolo average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded, and the last Serie A meeting ended 1-1. Look to under-goals prices with firms like Bet365 or Unibet in the total goals markets, using their match-winner odds (e.g. Bet365: 2.62 home, 3.25 draw, 2.55 away) as a guide to a balanced, cagey contest.
• Value Tip: Sassuolo to score at least once. With Laurienté (7 goals, 9 assists), Berardi (8 goals, 4 assists) and Pinamonti (9 goals, 3 assists) all carrying significant threat, and Sassuolo scoring in 26 of 37 league games, backing the visitors to find the net looks a strong angle. Given Pinnacle’s 2.69 away price and 1xBet’s 2.71 on the away win, any “Sassuolo over 0.5 team goals” market is likely to be heavily favoured and can be combined in builders for added value.

How to Watch Parma vs Sassuolo

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.