The Town vs North Texas Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

The Town welcome North Texas to PayPal Park on 19 July 2026 in an MLS Next Pro Group Stage clash that already feels significant in the wider playoff picture. The hosts are flying high in the Pacific Division, combining a potent attack with one of the stronger goal differences in the conference, while North Texas arrive looking to steady an inconsistent campaign.

The Town sit 4th in the Pacific Division with 28 points from 16 matches and an impressive +18 goal difference, underlining both their firepower and defensive solidity. North Texas, by contrast, are 5th in the Frontier Division on 22 points with a +5 goal difference, still in the mix but lacking the same level of control at both ends of the pitch.

With playoff seeding and momentum on the line, this fixture between The Town and North Texas shapes up as one of the more intriguing MLS Next Pro matchups of the weekend, especially given the rich recent head-to-head history between these two clubs.

The Town vs North Texas Key Stats

• The Town have 28 points from 16 matches with 37 goals scored and 19 conceded in the standings, and they have yet to draw a game this season (9 wins, 7 losses).
• The last meeting on 24 May 2026 at Choctaw Stadium finished North Texas 2-2 The Town, with The Town winning 4-2 on penalties.
• In 2026 tournament statistics, The Town average 2.4 goals scored per match (38 in 16) and 1.3 conceded, while North Texas average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.

The Town vs North Texas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 4 vs 5
• Points: 28 vs 22
• Goals For: 37 vs 26
• Goals Against: 19 vs 21
• Clean Sheets: The Town 2 vs North Texas 2 (tournament statistics)

The standings highlight a clear but not overwhelming edge for The Town. With 28 points from 16 games, they are not only ahead of North Texas by six points but also boast a much stronger goal difference (+18 versus +5). Their attack has been particularly ruthless, scoring 37 times, while keeping things relatively tight at the back with only 19 conceded.

North Texas remain competitive in their division but have been far more volatile. Seven wins and nine losses with no draws point to a boom-or-bust profile. Their 26 goals scored and 21 conceded show a side capable of creating chances but prone to defensive lapses, especially away from home where they have lost seven of ten in the standings.

The Town vs North Texas Key Matchups

The Town attack vs North Texas defence

Without individual scorer and assist data, the clearest matchup lies between The Town’s collective attacking unit and the North Texas back line. The Town’s 2026 statistics show 38 goals in 16 fixtures across all venues, with a total scoring average of 2.4 per game. At home they are even more explosive, averaging 2.9 goals per match with 20 scored in 7 outings and just 0.7 conceded on average.

North Texas, meanwhile, concede 1.5 goals per game overall and have allowed 15 in 10 away fixtures. Their biggest away defeat this season has been 2-0, which suggests they rarely get completely blown away, but the consistent concession rate points to sustained pressure from hosts like The Town. This clash of a high-volume home attack against a leaky away defence is likely to define the match.

Transition battle: North Texas counter vs The Town defensive structure

North Texas are not toothless going forward. They have 28 goals from 16 games, with a home scoring average of 2.7 and 1.2 away. Their biggest away win of 4-1 underlines their ability to punish teams when space opens up. The Town, for all their dominance, have conceded 16 times away but only 5 at home, indicating that at PayPal Park they tend to control territory and limit chances.

In this matchup, the key will be whether North Texas can turn their sporadic away scoring threat into efficient counter-attacks against a home side that often pushes numbers forward. If The Town’s back line maintains the home standard of just 0.7 goals conceded per game, North Texas will struggle to keep pace.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The rivalry between The Town and North Texas has been one of the more entertaining in MLS Next Pro, with tight scorelines, penalty shootouts, and momentum swings over recent seasons.

• 24 May 2026: North Texas 2-2 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Group Stage – The Town won 4-2 on penalties)
• 20 October 2025: The Town 3-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Round of 16)
• 24 April 2025: North Texas 2-0 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 8)
• 13 May 2024: The Town 1-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 12)
• 6 April 2024: North Texas 1-1 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 5 – North Texas won 5-4 on penalties)

The Town vs North Texas Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced contest in terms of result probabilities, but with a stylistic edge for the hosts. The prediction model gives The Town a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45 out of 100, and North Texas just 10 out of 100. That reflects The Town’s stronger recent form and superior attacking numbers, but also acknowledges the history of tight matches between these sides.

The Town’s recent record shows they are comfortable in high-scoring environments, with many of their matches clearing multiple goals. North Texas’ away profile – three wins and seven losses with no draws – hints that this may again tilt towards a decisive result rather than stalemate, but the 45-45-10 split keeps the draw very much in play.

Predicted Score: The Town 2-1 North Texas

The Town Recent Form

The Town’s standings form string reads LWWLW, reflecting a run of three wins and two defeats in their last five league outings. Over the broader 2026 tournament statistics, they have 9 wins and 7 losses from 16 matches with no draws, underscoring a high-variance but generally positive trend. Their last-five performance index is strong, with 60 in overall form, 82 in attack, and 59 in defence, plus 14 goals scored and 7 conceded across those five games.

North Texas Recent Form

North Texas come in with a more turbulent pattern. Their standings form is LWLOLLO, indicating frequent losses punctuated by occasional wins. Across 16 matches they have 7 wins and 9 defeats, again with no draws. In their last five, they have scored only 6 goals and conceded 8, with a form index of 20, attack at 35, and defence at 53. That combination points to a side struggling to generate consistent attacking output while remaining merely average at the back.

The Town Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups provided, a likely core group for The Town at PayPal Park could feature a mix drawn from their current squad:

Goalkeepers: Francesco Montali, N. Crockford, C. Lambe
Defenders: A. Cano, N. Dossmann, M. Floriani, J. Heisner, Jack Jasinski, A. Ling
Midfielders: Z. Bohane, W. Boyce, G. Bracken Serra, N. Buck, N. Fernandez, D. Lorenti, E. Mendoza, Nikko Perez, R. Rajagopal, K. Spivey
Forwards: N. Adimabua, T. Allen, D. Baptista, R. Castro, J. Donnery, Jayden Fitzgerald Boes, Y. Kikuchi, M. Kwende, J. Spivey, S. de Flores

The depth in attacking positions explains The Town’s high scoring rate, with multiple options capable of rotating across the front line. In midfield, players like N. Buck and N. Fernandez offer balance between control and forward thrust. Given their strong home defensive record, expect a structure that keeps a solid back four behind an aggressive front unit.

North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

North Texas also have a broad squad to choose from, especially in defence and attack:

Goalkeepers: E. Dymora, B. Thompson, A. Jordan, N. Montoya
Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, D. Easterly, J. Gibson, Leandro, Z. Molomo, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes, Joshua Torquato, L. Vejrostek, C. Wygant
Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, I. Charles, D. García, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela, C. Swann
Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, B. Flowers, D. Kimbrough, Ricky Louis, E. Nys, C. Salazar, S. Sedeh, Nicholas Simmonds

The variety in wide and central attacking options supports their capacity for quick transitions and counter-attacks. However, with only two clean sheets in 16 tournament fixtures, the defensive unit must tighten up, particularly the away back line that concedes 1.5 goals per match on average.

The Town Team News

No significant absences reported.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

The Town:

• None reported.

North Texas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: The Town vs North Texas

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: The Town to win or draw (Double Chance). With The Town given a 45 out of 100 chance to win and the draw also at 45, North Texas are rated just 10 out of 100. Combined with The Town’s stronger standings position and home scoring record, backing the hosts not to lose looks the safest angle.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. The Town’s matches average 2.4 goals for and 1.3 against per game in 2026, while North Texas average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Recent H2H games have included scorelines of 2-2, 3-0, 2-0 and 1-1, all clearing the 1.5 line comfortably.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes. The Town are prolific at home, but North Texas have enough attacking threat, including a biggest away win of 4-1 and a tendency to score in bursts. With The Town occasionally conceding late (a significant share of goals against coming after the break), BTTS offers an appealing higher-risk, higher-reward angle.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.