Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle: Premier League Clash Preview

The City Ground stages a tense late-season Premier League meeting on 10 May 2026 as Nottingham Forest host Newcastle. With three games left, Forest sit 16th on 42 points and are not mathematically safe, while Newcastle are 13th on 45 points and trying to halt a damaging slump. The stakes are clear: Forest are chasing security; Newcastle are trying to stop a freefall that could yet drag them back into trouble.

Context and form

In the league, Forest’s position (16th) belies a strong recent surge. Their official form line reads “WWWDW”, the joint-best sequence they have managed all season. Across all phases, they have 11 wins, 9 draws and 15 defeats from 35 matches, with a goal difference of -2 (44 scored, 46 conceded). That improvement has come after a long, erratic campaign summed up by a form string that includes several losing streaks but now closes with a cluster of wins and draws.

Newcastle, by contrast, arrive with the form arrow pointing sharply down. They are 13th with 45 points, also on -2 goal difference (49 for, 51 against), but their current run is “WLLLL” – one win followed by four straight defeats. Over the season they have 13 wins, 6 draws and 16 losses, and the underlying form line across all phases shows repeated short bursts of victories punctuated by worrying losing runs.

Home and away profiles

Forest’s home record in the league is modest but improving: 4 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats from 17 at the City Ground, scoring 18 and conceding 21. They average 1.1 goals for and 1.2 against at home across all phases. Crucially, they have kept 4 clean sheets at home but have also failed to score in 9 of those 17 matches, underlining how often games here are tight and decided by fine margins.

Newcastle’s away numbers are a key tactical lens. In the league they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats from 17 away matches, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. Across all phases that translates to just 0.9 goals scored per away game and 1.3 conceded. They have 5 away clean sheets but have failed to score in 7 of their 17 road fixtures, which suggests that when their front line misfires, they struggle to find alternative routes to goal.

Both sides therefore have a tendency towards low-scoring, attritional away/home contests respectively, even if the aggregate season totals (Forest 44 goals, Newcastle 49) show they can both threaten when games open up.

Tactical shapes and key figures

Forest’s season has been tactically defined by the 4-2-3-1, used 29 times. That system is built around Morgan Gibbs-White as the creative hub. The 25-year-old has been outstanding in 2025: 13 league goals and 4 assists from midfield, with 54 shots (28 on target), 46 key passes and 52 dribble attempts, 25 of them successful. He is also Forest’s designated penalty taker, having scored 1 from 1. Everything in Forest’s attacking play tends to funnel through him between the lines.

The supporting cast around Gibbs-White will be reshaped by injuries. Forest are without W. Boly, C. Hudson-Odoi, John Victor and N. Savona, all listed as “Missing Fixture” with knee injuries or unspecified injuries. O. Aina is “Questionable”. Boly’s absence removes an experienced aerial presence at the back, while Hudson-Odoi’s unavailability limits Forest’s ability to stretch the pitch on the flanks. That likely reinforces the need for Gibbs-White to carry an even heavier creative and scoring load, with Forest leaning on their double pivot in the 4-2-3-1 to protect a defence that has conceded 46 times.

Newcastle’s tactical identity has been a 4-3-3, deployed 27 times, with occasional switches to 4-2-3-1. Bruno Guimarães has been their standout performer. From midfield he has 9 goals and 5 assists in 26 appearances, with 29 shots (18 on target), 43 key passes and 40 dribble attempts. His passing volume (1,266 passes at 86% accuracy) and 55 tackles underline his dual role as playmaker and ball-winner. He is also reliable from the spot, scoring 2 penalties from 2.

Newcastle’s back line, however, is heavily disrupted. E. Krafth, V. Livramento, L. Miley and F. Schar are all “Missing Fixture” with various injuries (knee, thigh, broken leg, ankle). The loss of Schar in particular removes a first-choice centre-back and ball-playing outlet. With both Krafth and Livramento out, Newcastle’s right side of defence is stretched, potentially forcing a reshuffle that could weaken their usual pressing and build-up patterns.

Head-to-head picture

Looking at the last five competitive meetings (including the League Cup, excluding friendlies), Newcastle have dominated the recent head-to-head.

• On 5 October 2025 in the Premier League at St. James’ Park, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 2-0.
• On 23 February 2025 in the Premier League at St. James’ Park, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 4-3.
• On 10 November 2024 in the Premier League at The City Ground, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 3-1.
• On 28 August 2024 in the League Cup 2nd Round at The City Ground, the match finished 1-1 after extra time, with Newcastle winning 4-3 on penalties.
• On 10 February 2024 in the Premier League at The City Ground, Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 3-2.

Across these five competitive fixtures, Newcastle have 4 wins, Nottingham Forest have 0, and there has been 1 draw in regulation time (the League Cup tie, ultimately decided on penalties in Newcastle’s favour). Three of those matches were at the City Ground, and Newcastle won all three in league play, underlining how comfortable they have been on this ground in recent seasons.

Discipline and game state

Forest’s card profile shows a tendency for yellow cards to cluster after half-time, particularly between 46-60 and 61-75 minutes, which may influence how aggressively they can press if the game is finely poised. Newcastle’s yellow cards spike late (76-90 minutes), and they have had 3 red cards across all phases, all in the second half, suggesting occasional loss of control when chasing games.

Both sides are flawless from the spot at team level this season (Forest 3 scored from 3, Newcastle 6 from 6), and with two confident penalty takers in Gibbs-White and Bruno Guimarães, any spot-kick awarded could be decisive.

The verdict

The data sets up an intriguing contrast: Forest are in their best form of the season, especially in the league, but have been historically second-best in this fixture; Newcastle have clear head-to-head superiority but arrive on a four-game losing streak and with a patched-up defence.

Forest’s 4-2-3-1, powered by Gibbs-White, should target Newcastle’s weakened back line, especially the right side, and try to draw Bruno Guimarães deeper than he would like, limiting his influence in advanced zones. Newcastle’s 4-3-3 will still pose a threat through midfield rotations and Bruno’s shooting from distance, but their away record (16 scored, 22 conceded) and frequent failures to score on the road hint at a side that can be blunted if the hosts control central areas.

Given Forest’s recent “WWWDW” league form, Newcastle’s “WLLLL” slide, and the injury list tilting defensive disruption towards the visitors, the balance of probability leans towards Forest finally breaking their winless run against Newcastle at the City Ground. A tight, low-scoring contest fits both teams’ home/away profiles, with a narrow Forest victory or a draw the most logical outcomes on the numbers.