North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

North Texas welcome Los Angeles FC II to Choctaw Stadium in MLS Next Pro Group Stage action on 26 July 2026, with both sides firmly in the playoff conversation. The Frontier Division hosts sit 5th in their group on 25 points, while LAFC II arrive from the Pacific Division with 29 points and a promotion-playoff description in the Eastern Conference table.

For North Texas, this is a chance to turn a strong home attack into a statement win against one of the conference’s more explosive but erratic visitors. Los Angeles FC II, meanwhile, are chasing consistency: they have as many losses as wins, yet remain well-placed in the playoff picture. With the head-to-head history heavily tilted towards North Texas and both teams playing open, high-event football, this fixture has all the ingredients for one of the standout MLS Next Pro clashes of the weekend.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Key Stats

• North Texas sit 5th in the Frontier Division with 25 points from 17 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 21.
• Across the last five meetings, North Texas have dominated, including 4-2 and 4-0 away wins and an 8-7 penalty shootout success after a 2-2 draw.
• Season statistics show North Texas averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.4 against per match, while Los Angeles FC II average 1.7 scored and 1.9 conceded.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 3
• Points: 25 vs 29
• Goals For: 27 vs 28
• Goals Against: 21 vs 30
• Clean Sheets: North Texas 3, Los Angeles FC II 1 (season statistics)

Standings underline how finely balanced this matchup is. North Texas, 5th in the Frontier Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference on 25 points, have built their campaign on a strong attack (27 goals in 17 games) and a positive goal difference of +6. They have been particularly effective at home, winning 4 of 6 and scoring 15 while conceding just 8.

Los Angeles FC II, 3rd in the Pacific Division and 7th in the Eastern Conference, have 29 points from 18 matches but a negative goal difference (-2). They have scored slightly more overall (28) but shipped 30, with away form a clear concern: 2 wins and 6 losses in 8 road games, conceding 20. North Texas look more balanced, while LAFC II lean towards high-risk, high-reward football, especially away from home.

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Key Matchups

North Texas attack vs Los Angeles FC II away defense

Without individual scorer data, the clash is defined by unit strength. North Texas average 2.7 goals per home game this season (16 in 6) and have a biggest home win of 5-1. Their overall attacking pattern shows a significant share of goals arriving between 31–45 and 76–90 minutes, suggesting they can hurt opponents both before and late in matches.

LAFC II’s away defense is a vulnerability: they concede 2.8 goals per away game (22 in 8) and have suffered a 4-1 away defeat among their heaviest losses. Their goals-against profile also reveals a tendency to leak in the opening 30 minutes and again in the final quarter of an hour, a dangerous combination against a home side that finishes strongly.

Set-piece and penalty situations

Discipline and dead-ball situations could be decisive. North Texas have not been awarded a penalty in this campaign (0 taken), while Los Angeles FC II have had 16 penalties, scoring 12 for a 75% conversion rate. That gives the visitors a clear edge if they can draw fouls in dangerous areas.

On the defensive side, both teams show notable yellow-card activity in the 46–60 minute window, which often coincides with tactical adjustments and raised intensity. North Texas also have a record of red cards in the second half of matches, which could tilt the balance if ill-discipline strikes again.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between North Texas and Los Angeles FC II have been wide open and goal-heavy, with momentum largely on the Texas side despite one emphatic LAFC II win.

• 5 October 2025: Los Angeles FC II 2-4 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 25 August 2025: North Texas 0-4 Los Angeles FC II (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 June 2024: Los Angeles FC II 0-4 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 July 2023: North Texas 2-2 Los Angeles FC II (8-7 pens) (MLS Next Pro)
• 27 March 2023: Los Angeles FC II 0-1 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)

North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction

Stats suggest a high-tempo, attacking game. North Texas come in with a mixed but competitive recent form line of WLWLOL in the standings, while season-long metrics show 29 goals scored and 24 conceded across 17 matches. Los Angeles FC II’s broader form string (WLLLWLWLWWWWLWWLLL) underlines their streaky nature: capable of putting together winning runs but also prone to sharp downturns, especially away from home.

The head-to-head history heavily favours North Texas, particularly in California, and the comparison model leans their way: they hold the edge in defense, goals, and overall index, while attack is slightly in LAFC II’s favour. Prediction probabilities reinforce this: North Texas are given a 45% chance of victory, the draw also stands at 45%, and LAFC II just 10%. With no reliable goal-line prediction (the goals values are thresholds, not scorelines), a tight home win or a draw looks most likely.

Predicted Score: North Texas 2-1 Los Angeles FC II

North Texas Recent Form

North Texas’ recent form in the standings reads WLWLOL, reflecting a team oscillating between impressive wins and frustrating defeats. Over 17 matches they have 8 wins and 9 losses with no draws, underlining their all-or-nothing profile. They score 1.7 goals per match and concede 1.4, with a strong home record (4 wins from 6) and a positive goal difference at Choctaw Stadium.

Los Angeles FC II Recent Form

Los Angeles FC II’s standings form is LLOLOWW at divisional level and WLLLWLWLWWWWLWWLLL across the broader season statistics. They have 9 wins and 9 losses from 18 matches, again with no draws. The attack is consistent at 1.7 goals per game, but defensive frailty—1.9 conceded on average and 2.8 away from home—remains the main concern, especially on the road where they have lost 6 of 8.

North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups for this fixture, a projected core group for North Texas could feature:

GK: E. Dymora or B. Thompson
Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes
Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, N. James, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela, C. Swann
Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, E. Nys, Ricky Louis, Nicholas Simmonds

North Texas have a deep defensive pool and a young, mobile forward line. With strong home scoring numbers, expect an aggressive setup with overlapping full-backs and multiple attackers rotating across the front line. The lack of draws this season suggests a proactive tactical approach rather than sitting back, especially at Choctaw Stadium.

Los Angeles FC II Possible Starting Lineup

For Los Angeles FC II, the likely squad core includes:

GK: Cabral Carter or T. Hasal
Defenders: T. Babineau, C. Diaz, L. Goodman, S. Minor-Kaplan, Kenny Nielsen, E. Ponciano
Midfielders: M. Evans, D. Guerra, B. Moyado, Jude Terry, Lisandro Torres, E. Villeda, G. Zambrano
Forwards: M. Aiyenero, C. Kosakoff, J. Machuca, N. Mardaresco, Tommy Mihalic, Sebastian Nava, D. Resich, E. Rodriguez

LAFC II’s squad mix points to a technically capable midfield and a varied attacking unit with several wide and central options. Given their away defensive record, they may opt for a more compact shape, looking to exploit transitions and set-pieces—especially given their strong penalty record—rather than engaging in a full-throttle shootout from the start.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Los Angeles FC II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

North Texas:

• None reported.

Los Angeles FC II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas based on current statistics and prediction probabilities:

• Result Tip: Back North Texas in the “Draw No Bet” or double-chance market. With a 45% home win probability and another 45% on the draw versus only 10% for an LAFC II win, combined with North Texas’ strong home scoring and LAFC II’s poor away record, siding with the hosts while covering the draw looks the most logical angle.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 goals. North Texas matches average 3.1 total goals (1.7 for, 1.4 against), LAFC II’s average 3.6 (1.7 for, 1.9 against), and recent H2H clashes have produced scorelines of 4-2, 4-0, 4-0 and 2-2. Both teams’ under/over profiles show a good number of games clearing the 1.5 and 2.5 lines, so expecting at least three goals is well supported.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score. Despite North Texas’ three clean sheets and LAFC II’s single shutout, both sides create enough chances—averaging 1.7 goals scored each—and LAFC II’s defensive issues often force them to chase games. The head-to-head history features multiple matches where both sides found the net, and LAFC II’s strong penalty record adds extra BTTS value if they can draw fouls in the box.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.