North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

North Texas welcome St. Louis City II to Choctaw Stadium in MLS Next Pro Group Stage action on 5 July 2026, with both sides eyeing crucial points in the Frontier Division and Eastern Conference battles. The hosts sit mid-pack in their divisional standings, while the visitors are pushing towards the upper reaches and promotion play-off contention.

North Texas have been inconsistent through their 14 matches, mixing winning streaks with losing runs, but they remain dangerous at home and will look to use Choctaw Stadium to close the gap on St. Louis City II. The visitors arrive with a stronger overall record across 16 games and a higher points tally, but their recent form has dipped after an earlier long winning streak. For MLS Next Pro predictions and betting tips, this matchup offers an intriguing clash between a high-variance North Texas side and a more efficient but occasionally leaky St. Louis City II.

Historically, this fixture has produced goals and momentum swings, with both clubs trading dominant wins and heavy defeats over the last few seasons. With North Texas vs St. Louis City II picks likely to focus on goals markets and double-chance angles, this Group Stage encounter could have a significant impact on the race for play-off seeding.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Key Stats

• North Texas have 19 points from 14 matches with a +3 goal difference (23 scored, 20 conceded) in the Frontier Division standings.
• In the last five MLS Next Pro meetings, St. Louis City II have won three and North Texas have won two, including a 2-0 St. Louis home win on 30 May 2026.
• St. Louis City II have kept 4 clean sheets in their 16 MLS Next Pro matches this season, compared to just 1 for North Texas.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 3
• Points: 19 vs 29
• Goals For: 23 vs 28
• Goals Against: 20 vs 25
• Clean Sheets: North Texas 1; St. Louis City II 4 (tournament statistics)

In the Frontier Division standings, North Texas are 5th with 19 points from 14 matches, having won 6 and lost 8 with no draws. They have scored 23 and conceded 20, reflecting a side that plays open games and takes risks. St. Louis City II, by contrast, are 3rd in the same division with 29 points from 16 matches, winning 10 and losing 6, and holding the same +3 goal difference (28 for, 25 against) but with more consistency in turning performances into points.

Looking at the broader Eastern Conference table, St. Louis City II are 5th with 29 points and are noted as being in the promotion play-off mix, while North Texas sit 11th on 19 points. That 10-point gap underlines the visitors’ stronger campaign so far. However, North Texas’ home record (3 wins from 5, 12 goals scored) suggests they are capable of troubling a St. Louis side whose away record is solid but not dominant (4 wins and 4 losses from 8, 12 scored and 14 conceded).

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Key Matchups

North Texas Attack vs St. Louis City II Defence

With no individual top scorers or assist leaders listed, this matchup is best understood through team attacking and defensive numbers. North Texas average 1.8 goals per game across 14 fixtures, rising to 2.6 at home, where they have scored 13 times in 5 matches. Their biggest home win is 5-1, and they rarely fail to create, having only failed to score in 5 of 14 games overall.

St. Louis City II’s defence has been more resilient in terms of clean sheets, with 4 shutouts in 16 games, but they still concede 1.7 goals per match on average and 2.0 per game away from home. Their worst away defeats include a 5-2 loss, indicating that when they are stretched, they can be exposed. This dynamic sets up a key battle: North Texas’ high-output home attack versus a St. Louis back line that keeps clean sheets but is prone to conceding in bunches when things go wrong.

St. Louis City II Attack vs North Texas Defence

St. Louis City II bring a strong offensive profile into this contest, averaging 1.9 goals per game overall, with 2.3 at home and 1.6 away. Their biggest wins include a 4-0 home victory and a 2-0 away success, and they have only failed to score in 2 of 16 matches. Their scoring is well distributed across the 90 minutes, with significant shares between 16–30, 46–60, and 76–90 minutes.

North Texas concede 1.6 goals per match on average, rising to 1.8 at home. They have just 1 clean sheet in 14 games and have often been punished in the middle and late phases of halves, with a broad spread of goals conceded from 16–90 minutes. St. Louis’ ability to maintain attacking pressure throughout the match against a North Texas defence that struggles for long stretches could be decisive, especially if the visitors can weather early pressure and grow into the game.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This is a well-established MLS Next Pro rivalry with frequent meetings over the past three seasons. The recent head-to-head has been relatively balanced in terms of wins but often lopsided in individual scorelines, with both sides recording big home victories.

• 30 May 2026: St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 17 August 2025: North Texas 1-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
• 5 June 2025: St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro)
• 10 March 2025: North Texas 0-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
• 3 November 2024: North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced encounter despite St. Louis City II’s stronger league position and superior points tally. The win probabilities are tightly clustered, with North Texas given a 35% chance of victory, the draw also at 35%, and St. Louis City II at 30%. That aligns with the advice favouring a double chance on North Texas or draw, particularly given their strong home scoring rate and the visitors’ recent defensive wobble.

Head-to-head trends slightly favour St. Louis City II over the longer sample, but North Texas have produced some emphatic home wins in this fixture, including a 3-0 extra-time success in November 2024. With both sides averaging close to two goals per game and conceding at similar rates, a high-tempo, end-to-end match is likely. Given the lack of reliable integer goal predictions (the goals fields are thresholds rather than exact scores), the safest call is a narrow North Texas win or a scoring draw. With the double-chance leaning towards the hosts and their home attacking numbers, edging towards a home win in a tight contest looks justified.

Predicted Score: North Texas 2-1 St. Louis City II

North Texas Recent Form

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St. Louis City II Recent Form

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North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

GK: B. Thompson; Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro, Slade Starnes; Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina; Forwards: E. Nys, Nicholas Simmonds.

North Texas have a young but deep squad, especially in defence where options like Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro and Slade Starnes offer flexibility across the back line. In midfield, the likes of F. Aroyameh, N. James, M. Luccin and T. Ospina provide energy and ball progression, while attackers such as E. Nys and Nicholas Simmonds give pace and direct threat. With several teenagers in the squad, expect a high-intensity, front-foot approach rather than a conservative setup.

St. Louis City II Possible Starting Lineup

GK: B. Lundt; Defenders: K. Hiebert, L. MacNaughton, F. Fall, T. Totland; Midfielders: E. Löwen, T. Ostrák, M. Perez, J. Wagoner; Forwards: Jeong Sang-Bin, P. Ault.

St. Louis City II have a more experienced spine, with goalkeeper B. Lundt and defenders like K. Hiebert and L. MacNaughton anchoring the back line. In midfield, E. Löwen and T. Ostrák bring technical quality and control, supported by younger options such as M. Perez and J. Wagoner. Up front, Jeong Sang-Bin and P. Ault headline a varied attacking group that can stretch defences and exploit space in transition, fitting their profile as a side that scores regularly both home and away.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

St. Louis City II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

North Texas:

• None reported.

St. Louis City II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: North Texas vs St. Louis City II

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back North Texas or Draw (Double Chance). The probabilities give North Texas a 35% win chance and the draw 35%, against 30% for St. Louis City II. Combined with North Texas’ strong home scoring record (2.6 goals per game) and the visitors’ mixed away form (4 wins, 4 losses), the double-chance angle in favour of the hosts offers a solid balance of risk and reward. (No odds data available for this market.)
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 Total Goals. Both teams average close to two goals scored per match (North Texas 1.8, St. Louis City II 1.9), and their defences concede 1.6 and 1.7 goals per game respectively. Recent head-to-head meetings have regularly produced multiple goals, including 3-1, 3-0, and 3-0 scorelines. Over 1.5 goals aligns with the attacking profiles of both sides. (No odds data available for this market.)
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes. North Texas have failed to score in only 5 of 14 games, while St. Louis City II have failed to score in just 2 of 16. Both sides concede at least 1.6 goals per match on average, and St. Louis’ away defence allows 2.0 goals per game. Given the offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, BTTS looks a value-driven angle. (No odds data available for this market.)

How to Watch North Texas vs St. Louis City II

Broadcast rights vary by region; check local listings or the official tournament website for details.

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