Levante vs Mallorca: Key La Liga Clash Preview

Levante host Mallorca at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in a high‑stakes La Liga clash in the Regular Season - 37, with both sides locked on 39 points and currently in the relegation places (Levante 19th, Mallorca 18th). Goal difference is slightly kinder to Mallorca (-11 vs Levante’s -15), but home advantage and recent momentum tilt the balance towards the hosts.

Form-wise, Levante arrive in clearly better shape. The prediction model rates their last‑five form at 67% versus Mallorca’s 33%. Levante’s last five produced 9 goals for and 9 against (1.8 scored and conceded on average), signalling open, high‑variance games but also an attack that is functioning. Mallorca’s last five show 5 goals scored and 7 conceded (1.0 for, 1.4 against), which is more conservative going forward without being especially solid at the back.

Over the full league campaign (36 matches from standings), both teams are statistically very similar overall: 10 wins, 9 draws, 17 losses and 44 goals scored each. The difference lies in the split between home and away. Levante at home: 6‑5‑7, 24 scored and 28 conceded. Mallorca away: 2‑3‑13, 16 scored and 34 conceded. That away record is extremely weak, and the predictions’ comparison reflects this: Levante lead on attack index (64% vs 36%), while Mallorca edge the defensive index (56% vs 44%), but the overall comparison still gives Levante 55.3% vs Mallorca’s 44.7%.

The model’s Poisson-based distribution also favours Levante (57% vs 43%), reinforcing the idea that, on balance of chances, the hosts are more likely to come out ahead. Both teams’ goal profiles suggest a tendency for late action: Levante score 29.79% of their league goals from minute 76‑90, while Mallorca score 28.26% between 61‑75 and 23.91% from 76‑90, so a cagey first hour followed by a more open finale is a plausible match script.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data (excluding friendlies) shows a mixed but competitive picture. On 2025-10-26 in La Liga at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca and Levante drew 1‑1, with Levante leading 1‑0 at half-time before being pegged back. On 2022-01-08 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2‑0 at home. On 2021-10-02 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca beat Levante 1‑0. Going back further in La Liga, on 2020-07-09 at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca won 2‑0, while on 2019-11-22 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2‑1. In Segunda División, on 2017-03-25 at Iberostar Estadi, the sides drew 1‑1, and on 2016-10-15 at Ciutat de València, Levante won 2‑1. In La Liga 2012, Mallorca and Levante drew 1‑1 on 2013-05-05 at Iberostar Estadi (Palma de Mallorca), and Levante beat Mallorca 4‑0 on 2012-12-09 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia (Valencia). The pattern is that Levante have been consistently strong at home in league meetings, while Mallorca’s better results have tended to come in Palma.

Betting Perspective

From a betting perspective, the official prediction data is very clear: Levante are tagged as the likely side in a “win or draw” scenario, with the advice explicitly stating: “Double chance : Levante or draw”. The probability model assigns 45% to a Levante win, 45% to a draw and only 10% to an away win. That dovetails neatly with the market. Across major bookmakers, Levante are around 2.15–2.20 to win, the draw around 3.25–3.47, and Mallorca roughly 3.15–3.66. Converting the model’s 90% combined probability on Levante/draw against those prices, the double‑chance market (Levante or Draw) looks like the most robust value-aligned play.

Given Mallorca’s extremely poor away record and Levante’s stronger recent form and historical home edge in this matchup, backing Levante in the double‑chance market is the recommended bet. For those seeking a more aggressive angle, a small stake on Levante outright at around 2.15–2.20 is justifiable, but the data-backed core position remains: Levante or draw.